Economy 2023, forecast 2024: Vietnam's economy through the perspectives of international experts

Economy 2023, forecast 2024: Vietnam's economy through the perspectives of international experts

In 2023, Vietnam's economy has shown its resilience and steadfastness , ready to overcome the waves to become one of the economies with positive growth rates in the world.

2023 continues to be a turbulent year for the world economy. While the pandemic is still leaving serious consequences, a series of new challenges have emerged, including geopolitical conflicts, monetary tightening trends in major economies, decelerating growth... According to experts and international media, in that context, Vietnam's economy has shown its resilience and steadfastness , ready to overcome the waves to become one of the economies with positive growth rates in the world. gender.

* Challenges besetting the global economy

In the report on global economic growth prospects published on October 10, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast that the world economy will grow by 3% this year, unchanged from the forecast. that this organization launched in July. But the IMF lowered its growth forecast for 2024 by 0.1 percentage point to 2.9%. Meanwhile, the World Bank (WB) even thinks that global economic growth will only reach 2.1% this year.

For the Asian region, in the December 2023 Asian Development Outlook (ADO) report, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts that developing economies in Asia and the Pacific will grow 4.9% in 2023. China's economy is forecast to grow 5.2%, after household consumption and public investment boosted growth in the third quarter. India's growth outlook has been raised from 6.3% to 6.7% thanks to double-digit growth in the industrial sector.

Meanwhile, the growth outlook for Southeast Asia this year has dropped from 4.6% to 4.3%, amid weakening demand for export products.

According to ADB, continuously rising interest rates in the US and other developed economies could cause financial instability in vulnerable economies in the region, especially those with high debt. Potential supply disruptions due to the El Niño weather phenomenon or the conflict between Russia and Ukraine could also trigger inflation, especially related to food and energy.

ADB's Chief Economist, Mr. Albert Park, commented: "Asia is continuing to grow at a strong pace, despite the challenging global environment. Inflation in the region is also gradually being controlled. However, risks remain, from rising global interest rates to climate events such as El Niño. Governments in Asia and the Pacific need to remain vigilant to ensure their economies can survive. adaptability and sustainable growth".

*Positive comments for Vietnam's economy

Chief economist of the World Bank (WB) in Vietnam, Mr. Andrea Coppola, said that the global recession is a big shock to Vietnam's open economy. However, the economy still maintains the growth rate that many countries around the world expect.

Economic growth in the US is about 2.5% in 2023. In the Eurozone, growth is even weaker, at only about 0.5%. Meanwhile, the World Bank forecasts that Vietnam's economy will grow by 4.7% in 2023, before recovering to 5.5% in 2024 and 6.0% in 2025.

Meanwhile, the latest report recently released by ADB has adjusted Vietnam's economic growth forecast to 5.2% in 2023 and growth in 2024 is forecast to remain at 6.0%. 0%. However, ADB still believes that Vietnam's growth rate is quite good compared to many countries in the region.

ADB believes that the weaker-than-expected recovery in external demand continues to hinder industrial and service growth, slowing the recovery of employment and domestic consumption in Vietnam. However, prudent and proactive monetary policy will help control inflation. Inflation forecast in Vietnam is maintained at 3.8% for 2023 and 4.0% for 2024.

In an article in November 2023, Bloomberg Economics evaluated Vietnam as one of five countries mentioned in the reorganization of the global supply chain. Specifically, Bloomberg's macro research agency believes that a group of 5 countries including Vietnam, Poland, Morocco, Mexico and Indonesia are emerging as attractive trading partners and investment destinations in the context of tensions. Geopolitical tensions escalate globally.

According to Bloomberg Economics, these five countries account for 4% of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but attract more than 10% of foreign direct investment, equivalent to 550 billion USD, of the total number of new projects. investing in the green sector since 2017. Previously, Bloomberg also said that the rapidly growing economy has made Vietnam an attractive land for startups.

Commenting on Southeast Asia, global management consulting firm McKinsey believes that Southeast Asia is a bright spot in the picture of global economic decline, with a group of countries achieving high economic growth rates in the quarter. III/2023, including Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam.

According to McKinsey, external conditions and unfavorable demand for exported goods in Southeast Asia have caused regional growth to slow down in the third quarter of 2023. Vietnam's exports of manufactured goods also face many challenges due to falling demand in key markets such as the European Union and the US.

However, domestic demand, government spending and the recovery of the service sector, especially tourism, have contributed to better employment and income prospects, which in turn supported growth, especially are in the Philippines and Vietnam. According to the General Statistics Office (GSO), Vietnam's economy in the third quarter of 2023 increased by 5.33% over the same period last year. Previously, the economy recorded a growth rate of 4.14% in the second quarter of 2023.

Meanwhile, market news site Yahoo!finance published an article stating that Vietnam, China and some Asian countries are among the 20 countries with the fastest economic growth in the world in the past 10 years. The data in the article is based on data from the IMF. Specifically, the analysts looked at real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth after adjusting for inflation, based on data for the period 2012-2022 to calculate the average growth over the past 10 years. . Accordingly, with an average real GDP growth rate of 6.1% over the past decade, Vietnam belongs to the group of countries with high economic growth rates. In particular, Vietnam's agricultural sector is an important pillar of the economy, contributing both to GDP and creating jobs.

According to vtv.vn