2022: HOW TO HIGHLIGHT THE ECONOMIC PICTURE?

2022: HOW TO HIGHLIGHT THE ECONOMIC PICTURE?

Experts say that in 2022, Vietnam's economy will face more advantages than risks. Therefore, good growth can be expected if it goes in the right direction.

Although the COVID-19 pandemic is still very complicated, testing the resilience of the Vietnamese economy, many experts are still optimistic that in 2022, the economy will recover and grow well.

The three-horse carriage took off

Sharing with VTC News, Dr. Vo Tri Thanh - former deputy director of the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) - said: "Overall, Vietnam's economy in 2022 will face both positives and risks. , but the advantage is somewhat more prominent”.

 Economist Vo Tri Thanh

Mr. Thanh analyzed that the economic recovery process involves many factors, the most important of which is the external context. According to many forecasts, the world economy will rebound strongly in 2022, after a long time of struggling because of the pandemic. This means that many of Vietnam's main partners will be revived, and Vietnam's economy will benefit from this upward momentum.

Sharing the same opinion, Dr. Le Dang Doanh - Former Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM), former member of the Prime Minister's Economic Research Committee - believes in a good growth of Vietnam's economy in the near future. 2022. "Vietnam has an open economy, huge development opportunities, and Vietnam will take advantage of it", Mr. Doanh said confidently.

 Economist Le Dang Doanh

Meanwhile, expert Can Van Luc - Senior Advisor to the Chairman of the Board of Directors of BIDV Bank - said that in 2022, the three-horse carriage including export, investment and consumption will rise strongly, especially consumption.

Although optimistic about the bright spots in the coming year, experts still cannot deny that Vietnam's economy in 2022 must strive to overcome many challenges.

 Economic expert Can Van Luc

According to Mr. Vo Tri Thanh, the world economy still has many fluctuations that no one can predict or predict. In which, the most important is how the COVID-19 pandemic is controlled.

“There will be changes in the macroeconomic and monetary policies of countries, especially developed countries. This factor has a significant impact on the economic recovery in different countries and regions, including Vietnam. Besides, in the country, financial risks, excessive excitement or vice versa of some markets such as securities and real estate also affect the economic picture", Mr. Thanh analyzed.

Dr. Le Dang Doanh also emphasized the importance of closely monitoring all fluctuations of the world economy to have appropriate policies. “We have to adapt and change. More than ever, avoid being rigid or too dependent on old principles and rules," said Mr. Doanh.

The most obvious challenge that experts "show the face and name" is the huge pressure on inflation. In 2022, the world economy is forecasted to have a strong recovery, causing the demand for production and consumption to increase dramatically, while the supply has not been able to meet in time, leading to an increase in commodity prices.

Domestically, the COVID-19 pandemic caused a disruption in production and circulation chains. Production activities encountered difficulties, generating more costs for businesses. Besides, the shortage of labor due to the pandemic's impact is also one of the great pressures for businesses, forcing them to pay higher wages, increase training and recruitment costs. The end result is to increase product costs, reduce competitiveness. This is also a factor that puts pressure on the economy's inflation in 2022 and the following years.

Vietnam's economy will soon "pop up"

That is the opinion of many world economic organizations when forecasting the "health" of Vietnam's economy in 2022.

The WB is optimistic because fundamental factors still exist. That is: Vietnam maintains internal stability; controlling imbalances in terms of both budget and foreign trade and inflation; Vietnam's foreign currency reserves are at a fairly high level for many years… In other words, many economic indicators of Vietnam are still solid.

The World Bank chief economist said that COVID-19 is also an opportunity for the Government to carry out reform measures, so that Vietnam can realize its ambition to become a more developed economy in the coming years.

Besides, with competitive advantages such as cheap labor, foreign investment continues to pour into Vietnam.

Vietnam Holding, a London-listed investment fund that invests in high-growth companies based in Vietnam, also thinks that Vietnam is one of the best emerging markets in the world when the pandemic is over. . The Vietnamese stock market is also one of the best performing in Asia, growing more than 23% in 2021.

According to Vietnam Holding's analysis, Vietnam is still a rapidly growing Asian economy. Solid GDP growth and large population have enabled Vietnam to compete effectively with other countries in the region in the manufacturing and heavy industry sectors.

 Vietnam's economy in 2022 has many bright spots. (Illustration)

In a report, Singapore-based DBS Financial Services Co Vietnam's economy will accelerate in 2022, at 8%.

And Business Times quoted economist Chua Han Teng as saying: "The year 2022 looks a lot brighter for Vietnam." Foreign direct investment (FDI) remains the main driver of growth, while manufacturing and exports are likely to continue to expand.

How to brighten the economic picture?

Regarding the economic recovery process, many experts frankly said that the Government should accept the overspending and loosen the public debt ceiling. “When the situation is abnormal, we have to adopt an unusual policy. For example, in 1990, to fight inflation, the Government applied a policy of raising the interest rate on savings deposits up to 12%/month to attract idle money in the people, and then the inflation decreased immediately. We should accept such solutions,” said expert Le Dang Doanh.

Currently, our country's public debt ceiling is set at 60% of GDP, but in reality it is only about 44-45% of GDP. Thus, it is completely possible to loosen public debt so that we can continue to mobilize capital, while fighting the epidemic, supporting businesses and people, creating a driving force for economic recovery.

Dr. Vo Tri Thanh

Dr. Vo Tri Thanh also agreed that, in decisive moments, it is possible to accept higher than normal inflation. In the world, this is a risk that must be taken into account and depends on the economy of each country. In Vietnam, in 2022, it is planned to be development associated with recovery, including possible risks. “Higher inflation is acceptable but must not get out of control. After one or two years, it is possible to return to low inflation to keep the macro-economy more stable," Thanh said.

Currently, our country's public debt ceiling is set at 60% of GDP, but in reality it is only about 44-45% of GDP. Thus, it is completely possible to loosen public debt so that we can continue to mobilize capital, while fighting the epidemic, supporting businesses and people, creating a driving force for economic recovery.

Expert Nguyen Bich Lam - former General Director of the General Statistics Office stated that the Government needs to have a flexible solution in line with the development of the socio-economic situation in the country, prioritizing recovery and promoting growth. after successfully controlling and controlling the fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

It is necessary to remove difficulties and obstacles related to administrative mechanisms, policies and procedures; abolishing unreasonable expenses to cut input costs for businesses, create a fair and open business environment, promote aggregate supply, and reduce inflation pressure.

In addition, it is necessary to harmoniously combine fiscal and monetary policies, focusing on fiscal policies to support enterprises and individual business households to overcome difficulties and return to production and business soon. Using monetary policy at the right dose and reasonable, should not focus too much on monetary policy to remove difficulties and promote growth, because credit support and lowering interest rates for businesses can easily lead to risks. risks to the banking system and increase inflation.