ADB forecasts Vietnam's inflation to slow to 4% in 2023 and 2024

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts that Vietnam's inflation will slow to 4% in 2023 and 2024, in the context of falling global energy prices and stable food supply.

 ADB forecasts that Vietnam's inflation will slow to 4% in 2023 and 2024, due to falling global energy prices and stable food supply. (Illustration photo: THANH DAT)

According to the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) report published on July 19, ADB still maintains the growth outlook for developing economies in Asia and the Pacific at 4.8% in this year, as strong domestic demand continues to support the region's recovery.

China's reopening is boosting regional growth. The Chinese economy is forecast to grow 5.0% this year, unchanged from the April forecast, amid strong domestic demand in the services sector.

However, developing Asia's export demand for electronics and other manufactured goods is slowing, as tightening monetary policy leads to a slowdown in economic activity in developed economies. mainstream development. The region's growth forecast for 2024 has been adjusted slightly down to 4.7% compared to the forecast of 4.8% in April.

ADB's chief economist, Mr. Albert Park, commented that Asia and the Pacific continue to recover from the pandemic at a steady pace. Domestic demand and service activity are driving growth, while many economies are also benefiting from a strong recovery in tourism.

Asia and the Pacific continue to recover from the pandemic at a steady pace. Domestic demand and service activity are driving growth, while many economies are also benefiting from a strong recovery in tourism.

ADB Chief Economist, Albert Park

However, industrial activity and exports remain weak, leading to a deterioration in the outlook for global growth and demand next year.

ADB kept its growth forecast unchanged for most subregions in Asia and the Pacific. Exceptions include Southeast Asia, where the outlook was downgraded to 4.6% this year and 4.9% next year, from estimates of 4.7% and 5.0 respectively. % in April.

The forecast for the Caucasus and Central Asia subregion is adjusted slightly downward, from 4.4% to 4.3% for 2023 and from 4.6% to 4.4% in 2024.

For Vietnam, ADB adjusted its growth forecast for 2023 from 6.5% to 5.8%, and from 6.8% to 6.2% in 2024.

According to ADB, Vietnam's growth slowed in the first half of 2023 compared to the same period last year, to 3.7% as weak external demand continued to put pressure on industrial production and manufacturing. , while domestic conditions are expected to improve.

However, according to ADB, the bright spot is the recovery of domestic tourism that has boosted consumption, with retail sales increasing by 11% in the first half of 2023 over the same period.

According to ADB, the bright spot in Vietnam's economic growth is the recovery of domestic tourism that has boosted consumption, with retail sales increasing by 11% in the first half of 2023 over the same period.

Vietnam's inflation is forecast to slow to 4% in 2023 and 2024, due to falling global energy prices and stable food supply.

On a regional level, the ADB report stated that inflation is expected to continue to decrease, approaching pre-Covid-19 levels as fuel and food prices decrease.

Accordingly, the inflation forecast in developing Asia is 3.6% this year, compared to the forecast of 4.2% in April. Meanwhile, the forecast inflation level for 2024 was raised. increased to 3.4% compared to the previous estimate of 3.3%.