Aiming for GDP growth of 7% in the fourth quarter of 2023

With a growth figure of 7% in the fourth quarter predicted by many experts, GDP growth for the whole year 2023 will likely reach about 5%. Although lower than the set target of 6.5%, this is still quite high compared to many countries in the world and region.

Analysts expect Vietnam's GDP to increase by 7.0% over the same period in the fourth quarter of 2023, thereby raising the whole year's growth rate to 5.0%. Photo: Anh Kiet

Becoming positive

Vietnam's economy in the first 3 quarters of 2023 continues to show positive recovery momentum, reflected in many important targets and indicators. Although the results are not as expected, they have changed more positively each month and each quarter. Therefore, if growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 is more positive, it will contribute to creating momentum for 2024 and the following years.

Talking to Lao Dong, Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh - Head of Macro and Market Strategy Department, VNDIRECT Securities Company - expects Vietnam's GDP to increase by 7.0% over the same period (fluctuating within the 0.2 percentage points%) in the fourth quarter of 2023, thereby increasing the growth rate for the whole year to 5.0%.

"The main driving force will come from expansionary fiscal policy; lower lending interest rates, helping to recover private investment and domestic consumption; the manufacturing sector recovering thanks to increased export orders in the context of commodity prices. Inventories decreased and inflationary pressures eased in developed markets. Finally, there is a low comparison base for the same period in 2022 when Vietnam's GDP grew only 5.9% over the same period in the fourth quarter/ 2022" - Mr. Hinh said.

Sharing the same opinion about the forecast of GDP growth in the last quarter of 2023 of 7.0%, Ms. Nguyen Phuong Lam - Director of the Analysis Center of Rong Viet Securities Company - commented that the industrial production sector will improve at the end of the year. improved compared to previous quarters and supported by the low base level of the same period. In the fourth quarter of 2022, the growth of the manufacturing and processing industry only reached 3.0%, lower than the 5.6% increase recorded in the third quarter of 2023.

Besides, for the first 10 months of 2023, development investment is estimated to reach 401.9 trillion VND.

Ms. Phuong Lam expects that disbursement of public investment capital will continue to accelerate in the last two months of 2023, thereby supporting the overall growth momentum of the economy. However, service sector growth is expected to continue to decline in the last quarter of the year.

Comfortable production conditions create motivation for businesses to expand their business

As for the driving force from industrial production, in the first 9 months of the year, although positive changes were recorded, it was assessed as still slow and not yet fully recovered.

Mr. Huynh Hoang Phuong - Director of Investment Research and Analysis Division, FIDT Joint Stock Company - commented: "The health of the production sector has had mixed signs of good and bad in recent times. However, The general trend of the manufacturing industry is to gradually improve thanks to the recovery of export demand for key export products.

Looking beyond 6 - 9 months, I think that medium and long-term interest rates for general production are low, measures to reduce production costs but reduce taxes, fees and land rent, and measures to stimulate consumption by the Government. Government, such as reducing VAT by 2% in 2024, will be good conditions for the manufacturing sector to expand business and continue to recover...".

According to laodong.vn