Proposing 3 stages of economic recovery and development during and after the epidemic

At the expert consultation session on socio-economic issues taking place on the morning of September 27, experts, scientists and managers expressed many in-depth, independent, and constructive views for quality and sustainable socio-economic development.

Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management Tran Thi Hong Minh delivered a speech. (Photo: Doan Tan/VNA)

At the expert consultation session on socio-economic issues taking place on the morning of September 27, experts, scientists and managers expressed many in-depth, independent, and constructive views for quality and sustainable socio-economic development.

Assessing Vietnam's economic overview in 2021 and prospects in 2022, Dr. Tran Thi Hong Minh, director of the Central Institute for Economic Management, said that the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic lasted for a long time, especially from the end of April 2021 until now, forcing the Government and heavily affected localities to maintain social distancing and travel restrictions. Up to now, although the epidemic situation is still complicated, there have been fundamental changes in epidemic prevention and control, especially in vaccine diplomacy and speeding up vaccination for people.

The government is still aiming for "dual goals", but also listens and considers with a more marketable spirit with new proposals, such as the proposal to allow factories in industrial zones to maintain production in safe conditions. To ensure epidemic prevention, it is proposed to allow businesses to actively import vaccines...

The socio-economic results achieved in the first months of the year are still far from the target set at the beginning of the year, but there are also positive features. Macroeconomic stability was maintained, the average CPI in the first eight months of 2021 increased by 1.79% compared to the same period in 2020. Exports in the first eight months of 2020 grew by 21.8% over the same period in 2020. However, the economy still faces difficulties and serious consequences of the COVID-19 epidemic.

The dialogue’s view. (Photo: Doan Tan/VNA)

Through extensive consultation with domestic and foreign organizations and experts as well as the business community, the Central Institute for Economic Management believes that Vietnam's economic prospects may be influenced by a number of factors: the ability to control the epidemic; disbursement progress of public investment; the ability to guarantee production recovery; the ability to keep pace with implementing an extensive program of economic recovery and development, the ability to take advantage of opportunities from the recovery momentum of the world economy.

The Central Institute for Economic Management recommends three phases in the economic recovery program. Phase 1 (until the first quarter of 2022): prioritizing COVID-19 prevention and control, combined with macroeconomic policies (including promoting disbursement of public investment) to support businesses to "survive" through difficult times and maintain business environment reforms to remove difficulties for businesses.

Phase 2 (until the end of 2023): After controlling the COVID-19 epidemic, loosening macroeconomic policies to stimulate demand for the economy, and at the same time creating more "bounce" for businesses.

Phase 3 (after 2023): Normalization of macroeconomic policy, towards strengthening the macroeconomic foundation and promoting deeper economic institutional reform.

In addition, applying flexible macroeconomic policies according to scenarios to cope with adverse developments of the world and regional economies; promoting export diversification, on the basis of research, and timely information on markets and products that still have room to exploit in the context of the pandemic as well as the ability to meet important FTAs ​​(such as the CPTPP, EVFTA); researching and encouraging new economic models in the domestic market to create more economic space in the country; speeding up the implementation of the issued support packages for people and businesses.