Remove the "knots" of economic growth in 2022

Economic growth in 2022 is forecasted to recover positively compared to the previous two years, but there are still many "knots" that need to be removed in order to achieve the goal of high and sustainable growth this year and the years ahead. next.

Sharing about the bottlenecks in economic growth in 2022, Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung said that in 2021, the Covid-19 epidemic has caused difficulties not only in the economic field but also in the world. social topic. In 2021, the whole country has 119.8 thousand businesses temporarily suspending business, of which nearly 55,000 businesses withdraw from the economy.

 The link between domestic enterprises and FDI enterprises is still limited

Disbursement of public investment capital only reached 77.8% of the year plan, down 5% over the same period last year. Meanwhile, public investment plays an important role in economic growth and job creation, so the slow disbursement of public investment also hinders the recovery of the economy. Regarding export turnover in 2021, although it achieved an impressive figure of 332.25 billion USD, up 26.5% compared to 2020, the export turnover of the domestic economic sector only reached nearly 88.71 %, accounting for 26.4% of total export turnover and only increasing by 13.4% compared to the increase of 21.1% of the foreign invested sector (FDI). The supporting economy and the link between the domestic economic sector and the FDI sector are still loose.

Agriculture has always been considered as the "support" of the economy in difficult times, but the prices of agricultural inputs and feed, aquaculture have increased, and diseases have affected pig and poultry production. there are still complicated developments; Market demand has not recovered, output prices of agriculture and fishery are low, making farmers lose money.

Currently, many businesses are facing difficulties in producing and consuming goods. This will cause commodity prices to rise, putting pressure on inflation. Due to the sharp decline in aggregate demand of the economy, the consumer price index in 2021 is low (1.84%) compared to the set target of about 4%. However, inflation pressure in 2022 on the economy is still present. The world prices of raw materials, goods and services have increased, crude oil prices will continue to increase in the coming years due to strong demand, while supply is limited and the crude oil market experiences a shortage of sources. longest arc in decades. The lack of upstream investment in oil extraction as demand grows is an indicator of high oil prices persisting for at least the next year.

Meanwhile, our country's economy is highly dependent on imported raw materials, with the ratio of the cost of imported materials in the total cost of raw materials of the whole economy at 37%. The cost of petrol accounts for about 3.52% of the total production cost of the whole economy, especially when the world petrol price increases, it will increase the price of imported raw materials and domestic fuel as well.

 It is necessary to improve the efficiency of using public investment capital

From the above analysis, Mr. Nguyen Chi Dung commented: "The economic recovery process in 2022 will face many challenges and many bottlenecks and bottlenecks that need to be resolved. The recovery of production and business may be hindered by financial and market difficulties. The ratio of credit to GDP is still high, the medium and long-term capital of the economy still mainly relies on the banking system.

In order to remove bottlenecks and create favorable conditions for Vietnam's economy to grow strongly in 2022, in addition to continuing to implement the vaccine coverage strategy for the entire population at vaccination age, in which priority is given to the labor force. In order for these two production areas to quickly recover production and business, Vietnam needs to improve its capacity to disburse and effectively use investment capital, in which Currently investing with focus, focus on key industries and fields, driving force regions, growth poles, major national important projects, inter-regional connectivity projects. In particular, it is necessary to improve the efficiency of using public investment capital to create spillovers to private investment and the FDI sector. Along with that, exploiting the strengths of signed Free Trade Agreements, in order to improve the efficiency of international trade activities, promote exports, and enhance opportunities to attract quality FDI inflows.

In order to create a driving force for growth in 2022, economic experts also said that Vietnam needs to actively prepare all conditions to promote production and business, ensure supply and circulation of goods. reduce inflationary pressure. For short-term shortage of goods, it is necessary to have policies and solutions to cut production costs, timely import raw materials, strengthen inspection and inspection, and resolutely handle when detecting illegal acts. speculation, hoarding, price manipulation; implementing connectivity solutions, ensuring a suitable labor supply for the people. Along with that, proactively provide labor market information, develop plans and programs for coordination among localities in the supply and recruitment of labor to create connection and interconnection in the supply chain. labor application between localities.

The business sector plays an important role in economic growth, so supporting businesses to recover and stabilize production and business is one of the solutions that should be especially important to ministries, sectors and localities. focus in the near future.